We asked half a dozen pollsters how the governor's trip to the beach during a government shut down and his less-than-truthful answer when asked if he caught any rays could affect his numbers.
TRENTON -- Gov. Chris Christie was already the most unpopular governor in the history of New Jersey polling.
Then came photos earlier this week that showed he'd hit the beach at Island Beach State Park at a time when the park was closed to the public because of a government shutdown. When asked later in the day about whether he had gotten out in the sun, Christie said he did not.
To determine what effect the episode might have on his already low approval rating -- now 15 percent, at last count -- we checked in with six of the nation's top pollsters.
Their answers might surprise you.
Here's what they had to say.
CHRIS JACKSON, vice president, IPSOS
"If he'd done something out of character, that might move the needle lower. But I don't see his polling numbers moving all that much. He's already close to what a floor would be. With this beach story, people aren't saying, 'I can't believe Christie did that!' because it actually sounds like something Christie would have done. That last 15 percent, it's going to be pretty hard to change their minds absent him being arrested for some horrible crime. That's the bedrock that thinks, 'I like that he's got a lot of bravado and taking advantage of the system, 'cause the system is rigged, anyway.' After they decide that that's their guy, virtually nothing's going to change their mind once they've made it up."
SAMANTHA LUKS, managing director, YouGov
"The problem is that we don't have a Chris Christie who didn't do this to compare it to. He already had low approval before it happened. Will it make things worse for him? Well, the Access: Hollywood story (about Trump) last fall -- that referred to criminal behavior. This particular lie isn't as consequential as other type. It falls under 'extremely tacky' but I would have called the Bridge incident to be more politically consequential, and it already happened. But it's definitely possible to get into the single digits (Ohio Gov.) Bob Taft got to 7 percent. (Illinois Gov. Rod) Blagojevich hit 8 percent -- after his conviction."
Waves of anger over Christie 'arrogance' at reopened Island Beach park
PATRICK MURRAY, director, Monmouth University Polling Institute
"He's certainly doing everything in his power to drive his rating down into the single digits. Will he? The only cases where we've seen it have been where governors have been under a significant ethical or legal cloud, but it's definitely possible. We'll find out soon."
ASHLEY KONING, director, Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling
"I think there's only so far you can go, but he might fluctuate a couple points. He's probably at rock bottom. There are Republicans left who are going to cling to partisanship, but there may be a little wiggle room among independents -- if he loses some independents that could affect his numbers. These are very stark images for voters and society to in-take. This cements his image, and could harm his legacy."
MICKEY CARROLL, assistant director, Quinnipiac University Poll
"He's had perfect pitch on political stuff, and on this, tone deaf. We were joking when he hit 17 percent that he'd touched bottom, but then damned if he didn't hit 15 percent. I don't think he had any future as a national figure except as a presidential appointee, and this will hurt him with Trump, too. The guy who looks bad on cable news may not get anything from the president who only watches cable news, you know?"
KRISTA JENKINS, director the FDU Public Mind poll
"Can he go lower in New Jersey? Sure, absolutely. I can't imagine it won't affect him in some way. Usually when bad things happen, people's numbers change a bit. And he could have been at 11 percent, technically, since that's the margin of error of the last poll. So it's certainly possible. But even if he goes from 15 to whatever, what's the difference? It's not like he's going to launch himself nationally."
Claude Brodesser-Akner may be reached at cbrodesser@njadvancemedia.com. Follow him on Twitter @ClaudeBrodesser. Find NJ.com Politics on Facebook.