Here are the latest snowfall projections, the timing of the storm and biggest threats. In many counties, snowfall projections are now as high as 18 inches. Watch video
A winter nor'easter is on the way and it could pack quite a punch -- dumping as much as 18 inches of snow on parts of New Jersey, creating blizzard conditions with strong winds, and creating a risk of serious flooding and erosion along the Shore.
That's what you can expect this weekend, forecasters say.
Overnight, the projected snowfall totals were increased by the National Weather Service, a blizzard watch was issued for Bergen, Essex and Hudson counties, and Sussex County was added to the area under a winter storm watch.
The anticipated timing of the storm and the impact will vary, in some cases dramatically, depending on where you live or work. Here's a look at the latest projections:
SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY
Timing: The first snowflakes are expected to start falling late Friday night, most likely after the evening rush hour. Snow should get heavy throughout the day on Saturday and come to an end late Saturday night.
Snowfall projection: 12 to 18 inches in the western counties near Philadelphia, 12 to 18 inches in the middle of South Jersey, and lower amounts (4 to 6 inches or 6 to 8) the closer you are to the Atlantic coast, where warmer air could generate a mix of rain, sleet and snow. The weather service originally projected as little as 1 to 2 inches along the southern coast, but those numbers are now higher.
Winds: Sustained winds of 15 to 25 mph are expected in inland areas during most of the day on Saturday, with gusts up to 35 mph, and sustained winds of 30 to 40 mph near the coast, with gusts as high as 55 mph.
Threats: Blowing snow, heavy accumulation of snow on roads, possible power outages, possible storm surge and severe flooding along coastal sections of Atlantic and Cape May counties.
As of 5 AM Thurs, here is the snowfall forecast with ranges from the NWS for this weekend. #mdwx #dewx #njwx #pawx pic.twitter.com/HC2rvhG54A
-- NWS Mount Holly (@NWS_MountHolly) January 21, 2016
CENTRAL NEW JERSEY
Timing: The first snowflakes are expected to start falling late Friday night, most likely after midnight. Snow should get heavy throughout the day on Saturday and come to an end late Saturday night or early Sunday morning.
Snowfall projection: 12 to 18 inches in Middlesex, Mercer, Somerset and Hunterdon counties, and 12 to 18 inches in western sections of Monmouth and Ocean counties, much higher totals than originally projected. Areas closer to the Shore can expect 6 to 8 inches, also higher amounts than the weather service projected Wednesday.
ALSO: Jersey Shore flooding could be among worst ever, forecasters say
Winds: Sustained winds of 15 to 25 mph are expected during most of the day on Saturday, with gusts up to 35 mph inland and as high as 55 mph in coastal areas.
Threats: Heavy accumulation of snow on roads, possible power outages, possible flooding along Raritan Bay, possible storm surge and severe flooding along coastal sections of Monmouth and Ocean counties.
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY
Timing: The first snowflakes are expected to start falling between 1 a.m. and 3 a.m. Saturday, and snow should get heavy throughout the day on Saturday and come to an end by Sunday afternoon.
Snowfall projection: 8 to 12 inches in Warren, Sussex and Morris counties, similar amounts in Bergen, Passaic, Essex, Hudson and Union counties. Bergen, Essex and Hudson counties are now under a blizzard watch, along with New York City and Long Island.
Winds: Sustained winds of 15 to 35 mph are expected during most of the day on Saturday, with gusts up to 35 mph inland and up to 50 mph further east.
Threats: Heavy accumulation of snow on roads, and possible power outages.
Len Melisurgo may be reached at LMelisurgo@njadvancemedia.com. Follow him on Twitter @LensReality. Find NJ.com on Facebook.